What if dengue establishes itself in Paris and northern France?
Endemic dengue in northern France is a localized insurer/labor and public-health cost, not a macro mobility-collapse oil shock — the modeled WTI -1.6%/gold +1.1% cascade massively overstates it. Rhymes with the limited market impact of Zika (2016) or autochthonous dengue in southern Europe: regional health-system and reinsurer strain, no global demand hit. Transmission is French health/labor costs and vector-control spend; fade the oil and Fed-easing legs entirely.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Self-sustaining dengue transmission establishes in metropolitan Paris and northern France, straining health systems and lifting insurer and labor risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -11.42–+1.69% · other way +2.99% (n=11) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.14–+0.25% · other way -0.44% (n=11) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.08–+0.74% · other way +0.74% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -7.09–+2.44% · other way +0.45% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.45–+0.7% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.76–+0.1% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.71–+1.28% · other way +0.18% (n=11) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.59–+0.67% · other way +5.4% (n=10) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.74–+0.22% · other way +15.06% (n=11) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.06–+3.46% · other way +1.95% (n=10) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -8.22–+1.42% · other way +17.8% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -8.77–+2.2% · other way +19.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.6% | 78% | 22 | 0.53 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -4.5% | 71% | 22 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 22 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 65% | 29 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.2% | 66% | 14 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +16.3% · 5d +3.2% | 62% | 23 | 0.22 | · |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -6.6% · 5d -2.0% | 62% | 22 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -3bp | 60% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.5% | 60% | 17 | 0.18 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 29 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 29 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 22 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.1% | 40% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Local dengue clusters reach France yearly; self-sustaining northern-Paris transmission is the high bar. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.