What if dengue establishes itself in Paris and northern France?
Endemic dengue in northern France is a localized insurer/labor and public-health cost, not a macro mobility-collapse oil shock — the modeled WTI -1.6%/gold +1.1% cascade massively overstates it. Rhymes with the limited market impact of Zika (2016) or autochthonous dengue in southern Europe: regional health-system and reinsurer strain, no global demand hit. Transmission is French health/labor costs and vector-control spend; fade the oil and Fed-easing legs entirely.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Self-sustaining dengue transmission establishes in metropolitan Paris and northern France, straining health systems and lifting insurer and labor risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.