What if Europe backfills the US aid gap for Kyiv?
The EU and UK assemble a multi-year funding and munitions package that replaces lapsed US support, stabilizing the front and capping the European war-risk premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The EU and UK assemble a multi-year funding and munitions package that replaces lapsed US support, stabilizing the front and capping the European war-risk premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.72–-1.3% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.08–+0.78% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.36–+0.62% · other way -0.51% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.23–+0.56% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.36–+1.72% · other way +1.26% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.81–+5.13% · other way -3.68% (n=7) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.28–+0.4% · other way -2.68% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.9–+2.4% · other way -1.99% (n=8) |
| 10 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.31–+1.37% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.87–+0.8% · other way -1.96% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.56–+0.48% · other way +1.07% (n=10) |
| 13 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+0.99% · other way +4.28% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.51–+0.34% · other way +2.24% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.4% | 73% | 29 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.1% · 5d +2.1% | 71% | 15 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 34 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.5% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 26 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.2% | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |