What if European refinery closures tighten the diesel-import balance?
Accelerated closures of marginal European refineries deepen the region's structural diesel deficit, increasing reliance on Middle East and US imports and widening the gasoil crack on supply tightness.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerated closures of marginal European refineries deepen the region's structural diesel deficit, increasing reliance on Middle East and US imports and widening the gasoil crack on supply tightness. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.