What if Global refining-capacity wave compresses cracks toward breakeven?
A 2025-27 wave of new refining capacity across Africa, the Middle East and Asia outpaces demand growth, compressing gasoline, diesel and jet cracks toward marginal-refiner breakeven.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A 2025-27 wave of new refining capacity across Africa, the Middle East and Asia outpaces demand growth, compressing gasoline, diesel and jet cracks toward marginal-refiner breakeven. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Gasoline ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Jet fuel ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.3–+6.17% · other way +5.06% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.21–+3.83% · other way +0.5% (n=9) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.02–+9.99% · other way +0.9% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.09–+0.56% · other way +0.19% (n=9) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.03–+0.25% · other way -0.01% (n=9) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.93–+7.11% · other way +0.27% (n=9) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -4.39–+13.07% · other way +11.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist +0.05–+0.12% · other way -0.85% (n=9) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -7.75–+12.09% · other way +5.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +5bp | 68% | 19 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -4.0% | 68% | 18 | 0.26 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 66% | 18 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 19 | 0.21 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -8.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.1% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.5% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.3% | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 34% | 15 | 0.00 | · |