What if Greenland rare-earth mine breaks China's grip?
A Western-financed Greenland rare-earth project reaches production, diversifying magnet-metal supply away from China and easing a key clean-tech and defense input bottleneck.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A Western-financed Greenland rare-earth project reaches production, diversifying magnet-metal supply away from China and easing a key clean-tech and defense input bottleneck. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -2.7% hist -8.2–+2.04% · other way +17.32% (n=8) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.61–+1.19% · other way -1.3% (n=8) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.39–+0.5% · other way -0.56% (n=7) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.25–+0.8% · other way -0.46% (n=7) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -15.0–+18.52% · other way +7.77% (n=7) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.06–+0.8% · other way -1.49% (n=7) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.05–+2.3% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.61–+0.54% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.47–+1.69% · other way -3.11% (n=7) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.57–+2.87% · other way -4.76% (n=3) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.22–+4.5% · other way -1.87% (n=3) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -9.46–+12.04% · other way -1.17% (n=6) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.36–+0.98% · other way +0.29% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +0.8% | 78% | 8 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.1% | 83% | 11 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.3% | 82% | 10 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 73% | 10 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -1.7% | 78% | 8 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +3.2% | 78% | 8 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.9% | 67% | 8 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |