What if a Hormuz security crisis sends tanker rates up threefold with war-risk surcharges?
A Hormuz security crisis sends VLCC and LNG tanker rates up 3–5x with war-risk insurance surcharges, lifting delivered energy costs even on cargoes that still move.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Hormuz security crisis sends VLCC and LNG tanker rates up 3–5x with war-risk insurance surcharges, lifting delivered energy costs even on cargoes that still move. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.9% hist +2.76–+5.01% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.47–-1.16% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +0.7–+2.27% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.61–+1.89% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.88–-0.98% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.4–-0.22% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.38–+2.11% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.8–+3.38% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.05–-0.58% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.88–+5.11% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
| 11 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.15–+2.34% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.38–+9.05% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.06–+1.99% · other way -0.16% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.36–+1.93% · other way +5.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 72% | 35 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.3% · 5d +3.0% | 73% | 21 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.4% | 68% | 21 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.2% | 71% | 36 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.2% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 70% | 24 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.5% | 65% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -7.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.6% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |