What if Germany forces COSCO out of Hamburg's port?
Germany forcing COSCO out of its Hamburg stake and triggering Chinese carrier boycotts is a narrow EU-China friction event with limited earnings impact, so the -1.8% Nasdaq/semis cascade overstates a mostly logistics/diplomatic spat. Rhymes with the 2022-23 Hamburg COSCO stake controversy itself and broader EU de-risking. China/Germany trade is the axis; COSCO reroutes to Rotterdam/Antwerp. The forward angle is carrier boycotts hurt Hamburg's throughput more than they move global markets - this is a port-share story, not a macro shock.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Germany forcibly unwinds COSCO's Hamburg terminal stake, triggering Chinese carrier boycotts of the port. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.