What if Hormuz re-mined, ~10mbd pulled off market?
Iran re-mines and closes the Strait of Hormuz, stranding roughly a fifth of seaborne oil; Brent vaults above $120 and tanker war-risk insurance spikes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Iran re-mines and closes the Strait of Hormuz, stranding roughly a fifth of seaborne oil; Brent vaults above $120 and tanker war-risk insurance spikes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +10.1% hist +3.16–+5.62% · other way -10.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.4% hist -2.99–-1.64% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +5.4% hist +1.54–+3.17% · other way -1.11% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.5% hist -0.38–+2.41% · other way +2.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.55–-1.29% · other way -0.01% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -3.34–+1.67% · other way +21.38% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.33–-0.71% · other way +1.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.1% hist +0.62–+3.07% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.73–+4.14% · other way -1.19% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.7–+0.21% · other way +11.14% (n=11) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.28–-0.58% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.25–-0.13% · other way +5.94% (n=11) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.71–+1.64% · other way +6.55% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.6% | 70% | 35 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +2.7% | 69% | 22 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 9 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 22 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |