What if Iran-deal sanctions relief revives tanker oversupply?
Legalized Iranian crude exports and reconnected shipping ease the tanker squeeze, lowering freight rates and the delivered cost of crude for importers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Legalized Iranian crude exports and reconnected shipping ease the tanker squeeze, lowering freight rates and the delivered cost of crude for importers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.78–-0.29% · other way -2.08% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.11–+1.11% · other way -3.2% (n=7) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.96–+0.5% · other way -2.1% (n=7) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.62–+13.47% · other way +7.88% (n=7) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.18% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.99–+0.03% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.64–+8.66% · other way +3.94% (n=7) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.66–+5.18% · other way -4.91% (n=7) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.05–+0.72% · other way +0.0% (n=7) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.99–+10.1% · other way +11.52% (n=7) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.25–+3.9% · other way -2.46% (n=7) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -3.84–+9.07% · other way +10.9% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -6.08–+8.06% · other way +3.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 20 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +1.9% | 81% | 15 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -5.0% | 68% | 19 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +12.5% · 5d +0.7% | 63% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 66% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 17 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 20 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -9.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 10 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +8.7% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 10 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 44% | 15 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 40% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |