What if snapback sanctions remove 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports from the market?
A snapback of maximal sanctions enforcement removes 1.0–1.5 mb/d of Iranian exports from the market, tightening the medium-sour pool that Asian refiners rely on.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A snapback of maximal sanctions enforcement removes 1.0–1.5 mb/d of Iranian exports from the market, tightening the medium-sour pool that Asian refiners rely on. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.5% hist +2.08–+4.47% · other way -3.16% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.33–-1.24% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +0.14–+2.22% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.01–-0.94% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -1.46–+1.82% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.66–-0.97% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -4.39–+0.41% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist -0.25–+1.45% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.3–-0.07% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.22–+0.01% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.66–-0.17% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.38–+0.67% · other way -2.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.02–-0.53% · other way +1.98% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.7–-0.17% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +0.8% | 74% | 17 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.6% · 5d +3.7% | 74% | 17 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 34 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -5.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -6.8% ↺ fades | 66% | 17 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.5% | 63% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |