What if Japan exits deflation cleanly; Nikkei rerates on reflation?
Sustained 2% inflation with wage growth confirms Japan's deflation exit, validating corporate-reform reflation; the Nikkei rallies, the JPY firms moderately and Japanese risk appetite improves.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Sustained 2% inflation with wage growth confirms Japan's deflation exit, validating corporate-reform reflation; the Nikkei rallies, the JPY firms moderately and Japanese risk appetite improves. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.27–+1.47% · other way -1.08% (n=9) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.79–+8.64% · other way +11.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.19–+3.14% · other way -2.84% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.55–+0.54% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.48–+1.64% · other way +0.03% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–-0.1% · other way +2.43% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.49–+0.32% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.8–+0.62% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.21–+0.86% · other way -0.19% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.1–+6.5% · other way +16.73% (n=9) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.42–+0.32% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.86–+0.62% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.81% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -7.5% | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.8% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 38 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |