What if a major LNG exporter restricts shipments for geopolitical leverage and spikes gas prices?
A major LNG exporter restricts shipments for geopolitical leverage, tightening the seaborne gas market and spiking European and Asian gas prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major LNG exporter restricts shipments for geopolitical leverage, tightening the seaborne gas market and spiking European and Asian gas prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.04–+5.41% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.93–-0.7% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.7% hist +0.56–+1.78% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.2% hist -0.68–+1.85% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.36–-0.68% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.01–+2.16% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.52–-0.2% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.15–+3.25% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.63–+5.88% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.43–+2.69% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.09–-0.18% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.23–+2.07% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.23–+2.57% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.02–-0.01% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 31 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |