What if Managed US-China decoupling avoids a hard break?
Both sides pursue selective, sector-limited decoupling that preserves consumer-goods trade, keeping fragmentation contained and the growth hit modest.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Both sides pursue selective, sector-limited decoupling that preserves consumer-goods trade, keeping fragmentation contained and the growth hit modest. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.62–+0.27% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–-0.07% |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.11–+3.14% |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.01–+1.31% |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.78–+0.4% |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.08–+3.3% |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.74–+1.13% |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.98–+0.08% |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.67–+4.99% |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.67–+0.48% |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.26–+0.79% |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–-0.05% |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.99–+0.72% |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.48–+1.33% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -3.9% | 70% | 38 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +5bp | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.7% | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | · |