What if a heavy-lift rocket explodes with hundreds of satellites aboard?
A heavy-lift loss with hundreds of satellites spikes launch-insurance rates and stalls constellation deployment — a space-sector/insurance event, not an AI-capex bellwether move; the modeled Nvidia leg is a stretch. Rhymes with the 2023 launch-insurance capacity crunch after a run of satellite losses that hardened rates. Transmission hits launch insurers, constellation operators' redeployment costs, and component/satellite makers — barely touching AI semis.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fully-loaded heavy-lift rocket explodes with hundreds of satellites, halting deployments and spiking launch-insurance rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.3–+7.92% · other way -2.93% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.02% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+0.16% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.03% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.37–+1.27% · other way +0.71% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.26–+0.51% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.22% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.4% · 5d +4.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -2.9% | 67% | 27 | 0.27 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 29 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.5% | 60% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 50% | 29 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 50% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.0% | 50% | 28 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Heavy-lift losses happen, but a fully-loaded hundreds-of-sats explosion in 6mo is specific. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.