What if MP-Lynas crack Western heavy-REE supply?
MP Materials and Lynas bring heavy rare-earth separation online at scale outside China, breaking the magnet chokehold and easing the strategic-minerals premium.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. MP Materials and Lynas bring heavy rare-earth separation online at scale outside China, breaking the magnet chokehold and easing the strategic-minerals premium. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.81–+1.53% · other way -1.3% (n=8) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.13–+1.8% · other way +0.29% (n=7) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.38–+1.01% · other way -0.46% (n=7) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.59–+1.01% · other way -1.34% (n=7) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.36–+1.83% · other way -1.99% (n=7) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.43–+3.1% · other way -4.76% (n=3) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.72–+2.07% · other way -6.04% (n=6) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.41–+0.77% · other way -2.07% (n=9) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.29–+0.94% · other way -0.06% (n=7) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.52–+1.85% · other way -1.43% (n=8) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.59–+2.07% · other way -1.02% (n=7) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.53–+3.42% · other way -2.43% (n=7) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -15.03–+18.48% · other way +7.77% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +0.8% | 78% | 8 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.3% | 82% | 10 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -1.7% | 78% | 8 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +3.2% | 78% | 8 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 72% | 8 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 8 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.9% | 67% | 8 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +2.0% | 64% | 10 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |