What if North-South war scare empties Seoul markets in a capital flight?
A rapid escalation cycle pushes the Peninsula to the brink of open conflict, triggering capital flight from Seoul; KRW and KOSPI crash, memory-chip supply fear spikes, gold and VIX soar.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A rapid escalation cycle pushes the Peninsula to the brink of open conflict, triggering capital flight from Seoul; KRW and KOSPI crash, memory-chip supply fear spikes, gold and VIX soar. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Gold ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +11.2% hist +3.81–+6.39% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.8% hist -2.33–-1.24% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.05–-1.06% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.72–-0.43% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.59–-0.71% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.41–+0.04% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.49–+1.01% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.7–-0.52% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -7.04–+1.64% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.91–+0.26% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.01–+2.28% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.44–-0.34% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.5–+1.07% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.7% | 70% | 23 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 16 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 65% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 66% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.1% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 60% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |