What if PLA fighter weapons-locks a US recon plane over the SCS?
A radar weapons-lock during a close intercept escalates a US-China aerial incident; a brief risk-off wave hits Asian equities and EM FX, lifting VIX, gold and the dollar.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A radar weapons-lock during a close intercept escalates a US-China aerial incident; a brief risk-off wave hits Asian equities and EM FX, lifting VIX, gold and the dollar. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.6% hist +1.85–+5.19% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.81–-0.91% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.79–+1.83% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -4.46–+2.5% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.39–-0.26% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.97–-0.23% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.18–-0.43% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.88–+0.39% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -7.71–+3.15% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -9.49–+14.81% · other way +21.23% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.73–-0.29% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.22–+0.52% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.63–-0.21% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +15.8% · 5d +4.1% | 76% | 8 | 0.48 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 24 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 22 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -7.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 30 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 25 | 0.18 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 25 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 26 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +3bp | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |