What if PLA seizes Taiwan-held Itu Aba in the Spratlys?
China takes Taiwan's largest occupied Spratly feature, a multi-front escalation linking Strait and SCS theaters; TWD, PHP and VND weaken, oil-route and chip risk rise, gold and VIX bid.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China takes Taiwan's largest occupied Spratly feature, a multi-front escalation linking Strait and SCS theaters; TWD, PHP and VND weaken, oil-route and chip risk rise, gold and VIX bid. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.7% hist +2.4–+6.4% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.06–-0.93% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -1.69–-0.86% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.37–-0.78% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.13–-0.46% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.96–+0.03% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.22–+0.99% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.35–-0.16% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.13–-0.1% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 10 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.13–+1.12% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.88–+0.4% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist -1.33–+1.03% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.01–-0.4% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +0.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.9% | 64% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.3% | 63% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +4.0% | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 38 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |