What if allies ban quantum-computing technology exports to China?
An allied ban on cryogenics and dilution refrigerators to China/Russia is a niche, long-horizon control with minimal near-term earnings impact - the 6-18m timeline and small qubit market mean the -2.5% TSMC/Nvidia cascade is overstated. No strong market analogue; closest is the slow-burn 2024 quantum/Wassenaar additions. China and Russia are the targets; the forward angle is this is pre-emptive denial of a non-commercialized technology, so it is more a signaling escalation than a tradeable shock - roots are too broad on semiconductor_risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Allied bloc bars export of cryogenics, qubit-control, and dilution refrigerators to China and Russia. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.9% hist -0.24–+5.78% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.8–-0.84% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.26–-0.54% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.19–-0.38% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.48–-0.26% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.52–+0.24% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.86–-0.3% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.2–+1.21% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.05–+0.66% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.88–+0.05% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.53–+0.47% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.24–+0.46% · other way -2.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.45–+0.1% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.03–-0.06% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on RTX/NOC: the small negative history leans on tariff-selloff windows irrelevant to a quantum-tech export ban — a defense-tech control is procurement-bullish, not the broad-risk channel measured.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 80% | 19 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 20 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 20 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 19 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Allied tech-bloc controls expand steadily; quantum-specific multilateral ban plausible over 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.