What if Secondary sanctions hit China-Russia oil trade?
The US imposes secondary sanctions on banks financing Russian crude to China, tightening oil flows, lifting the oil-supply-risk premium and straining USD-clearing for buyers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The US imposes secondary sanctions on banks financing Russian crude to China, tightening oil flows, lifting the oil-supply-risk premium and straining USD-clearing for buyers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.7% hist +1.15–+6.43% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.31–-1.0% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.31–+2.0% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.77–-1.02% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.72–-0.64% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -2.82–+1.88% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.15–-0.6% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.15–+1.56% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.49–-0.02% · other way +3.19% (n=12) |
| 10 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.4–+0.06% · other way +2.98% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.99–-0.52% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.05–+1.17% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.41–-0.19% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.13–+0.26% · other way +0.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.8% · 5d +0.7% | 75% | 14 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +3.7% | 75% | 14 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 32 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 68% | 32 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 38 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -4.7% | 65% | 23 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.9% | 65% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 63% | 32 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.1% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -7.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 14 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +0.5% | 62% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |