What if Record refinery runs pull crude tight despite ample supply?
Fat crack spreads push global refinery utilization to record highs, pulling crude demand up enough to tighten the prompt market even as upstream supply runs ample; the run-pull firms front spreads.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Fat crack spreads push global refinery utilization to record highs, pulling crude demand up enough to tighten the prompt market even as upstream supply runs ample; the run-pull firms front spreads. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.99–+9.84% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 2 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.7–+5.15% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 32 | 0.21 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 53% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 47% | 28 | 0.00 | · |