What if EV penetration strands marginal refining capacity and forces early closures?
Accelerating EV penetration and net-zero fuel policy strands marginal refining capacity, forcing closures and impairments as gasoline and diesel demand peaks early.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerating EV penetration and net-zero fuel policy strands marginal refining capacity, forcing closures and impairments as gasoline and diesel demand peaks early. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Diesel ▼ · Gasoline ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.01–+3.42% · other way -2.59% (n=6) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.23–+6.27% · other way -11.98% (n=6) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.69–+4.64% · other way -9.16% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 15 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +5.7% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 14 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 14 | 0.31 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -3.7% | 67% | 14 | 0.25 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +12.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 8 | 0.08 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 15 | 0.04 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.6% | 44% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +0.5% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 32% | 15 | 0.00 | · |