What if years of refinery closures leave global diesel and jet supply chronically tight?
Years of refinery closures in advanced economies leave global product supply chronically tight, structurally elevating cracks and product-price volatility for diesel and jet.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Years of refinery closures in advanced economies leave global product supply chronically tight, structurally elevating cracks and product-price volatility for diesel and jet. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.