What if an oil drop and sanctions tightening push the ruble into emergency rate hike territory?
A combined oil-price drop and sanctions tightening pushes the ruble sharply weaker, forcing the Bank of Russia into emergency rate hikes and capital controls as in 2022.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A combined oil-price drop and sanctions tightening pushes the ruble sharply weaker, forcing the Bank of Russia into emergency rate hikes and capital controls as in 2022. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.