What if an oil drop and sanctions tightening push the ruble into emergency rate hike territory?
A combined oil-price drop and sanctions tightening pushes the ruble sharply weaker, forcing the Bank of Russia into emergency rate hikes and capital controls as in 2022.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A combined oil-price drop and sanctions tightening pushes the ruble sharply weaker, forcing the Bank of Russia into emergency rate hikes and capital controls as in 2022. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist -0.16–+7.39% · other way -7.65% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.22–-0.32% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.25–+0.38% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.03–+0.15% · other way +0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.57–+0.19% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.91–-0.06% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–-0.17% · other way +32.18% (n=12) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.87–-0.05% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.81–+1.36% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 10 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.67–-0.03% · other way -0.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.2–+0.24% · other way -2.53% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.39–+1.62% · other way +8.66% (n=11) |
| 13 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.43–+0.17% · other way +0.98% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.77–+0.09% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.3% · 5d +7.4% | 82% | 11 | 0.57 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.8% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -6.1% | 67% | 15 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.0% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.3% · 5d +8.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 54% | 37 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |