What if Russia sanctions extend to palladium and nickel and tighten battery-metal markets?
Sanctions tightening on Russian energy extends to palladium and nickel supply, tightening battery- and catalyst-metal markets in a commodity-fragmentation channel.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sanctions tightening on Russian energy extends to palladium and nickel supply, tightening battery- and catalyst-metal markets in a commodity-fragmentation channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.2% hist -0.19–+8.0% · other way -8.71% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.4% hist -1.93–-0.99% · other way +1.49% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.31–-0.46% · other way +2.08% (n=11) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.4–-0.75% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.89–-0.27% · other way +8.05% (n=11) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.98–+1.41% · other way +1.92% (n=10) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.01–-0.12% · other way +3.6% (n=11) |
| 8 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.41–+1.44% · other way +7.4% (n=11) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.9–-0.31% · other way +5.49% (n=11) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.29–+1.63% · other way +0.9% (n=9) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.96–+-0.0% · other way +10.12% (n=11) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.44–-0.21% · other way +9.99% (n=11) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.98–+0.53% · other way +0.74% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.88–-0.3% · other way +1.68% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 66% | 33 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +2.5% | 64% | 34 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 29 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 61% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +7bp | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |