What if a multi-year oil and sanctions squeeze depletes Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund?
A multi-year low-oil and sanctions squeeze runs down Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund, narrowing the fiscal buffer that has cushioned the ruble and the budget.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-year low-oil and sanctions squeeze runs down Russia's liquid National Wealth Fund, narrowing the fiscal buffer that has cushioned the ruble and the budget. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.9% hist +0.13–+2.98% · other way -11.24% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–-0.31% · other way +0.63% (n=11) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–+0.38% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.71–+0.18% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.47–+0.0% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–-0.06% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.78–+4.96% · other way +14.68% (n=11) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.32–-0.04% · other way -1.03% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–+0.05% · other way +2.25% (n=11) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.34–+1.51% · other way -1.95% (n=11) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.92–+0.15% · other way +1.41% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.98–+1.47% · other way +4.56% (n=8) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.39–+0.04% · other way -0.7% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.75–+0.42% · other way +3.61% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.7% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.9% | 62% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +1.5% | 57% | 19 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |