What if coordinated seizure of Russia's shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics?
Coordinated interdiction of Russia's aging shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics and raises spill/accident risk, removing barrels and lifting clean-tanker rates.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Coordinated interdiction of Russia's aging shadow tanker fleet disrupts export logistics and raises spill/accident risk, removing barrels and lifting clean-tanker rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.5% hist +2.07–+4.34% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.1% hist -2.49–-0.87% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.89–+2.11% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.91–-0.96% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.79–-0.72% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.28–+1.76% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.79–-0.04% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -2.71–+0.08% · other way +1.36% (n=12) |
| 9 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.23–+1.88% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.68–-0.17% · other way -2.12% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.1–-0.34% · other way -0.29% (n=11) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.04–-0.49% · other way +8.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.87–+0.32% · other way +2.99% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.42–-0.37% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 37 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +2.6% | 68% | 17 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.9% · 5d +0.7% | 68% | 17 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.7% | 69% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.9% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 68% | 38 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 64% | 37 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 63% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |