What if Russia halts all wheat exports?
A Russian wheat-export halt jolts millers — Russia is the #1 wheat exporter (~20-25% of trade), so the trade is a wheat limit-move and import-bill stress for Egypt/Turkey, not the VIX/risk-parity equity-crash chain the geopolitical_risk root inflates. Rhymes with the 2010 Russian export ban after drought/fires that nearly doubled wheat and sparked Arab-Spring food unrest. Transmission: Egypt (top buyer) and North Africa most exposed; EM FX softens. Forward: with Black Sea logistics already fragile, a deliberate halt tightens faster than a weather event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Russia suspends wheat exports to defend domestic prices, jolting Egypt, Turkey and global milling markets overnight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.0% hist +0.09–+6.89% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.14–-0.64% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.11–+0.31% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.19–+0.35% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.73–+1.3% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.9–+0.56% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 7 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.82–+0.02% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.14–+0.51% · other way -0.5% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.44–+6.07% · other way +30.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.74–+5.13% · other way -2.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.89–+0.52% · other way +2.98% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.77–+0.2% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.33–+4.19% · other way -2.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.46–+0.8% · other way +2.6% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR/COIN: +51-65% analogues are 2024-25 BTC-bull and Iran-spike windows where crypto ripped — a Russian wheat halt has no bitcoin channel, history is pure regime.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +20.9% · 5d +6.2% | 88% | 8 | 0.68 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 71% | 17 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.2% · 5d +14.3% | 68% | 19 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -8.3% ↺ fades | 75% | 8 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 23 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 28 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 12 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +1.2% | 62% | 21 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -4.7% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Full Russian wheat export halt is rare; export taxes/quotas favored over outright bans; large 2026 crop. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.