What if sabotage knocks out the TurkStream gas pipeline mid-winter?
TurkStream sabotage cuts Russian gas to Turkey and SE Europe (Hungary, Serbia) mid-winter; the move is overwhelmingly in European TTF and regional gas, with crude only a sympathetic bid, so the WTI/Brent legs here are noise. Rhymes with the Sep-2022 Nord Stream blasts, which sent TTF vertical while crude barely reacted. Transmission: Russia supplies these landlocked buyers who have few LNG re-gas alternatives; forward angle: post-2022 EU storage mandates and ample 2026 LNG blunt the price spike versus the Nord Stream episode.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Underwater sabotage disables TurkStream, severing Russian gas to Turkey and southeastern Europe mid-winter. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.