What if Russian palladium and nickel export ban hits metals?
Russia restricts palladium and nickel exports in a sanctions tit-for-tat, squeezing autocatalyst and battery supply chains and spiking PGM prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Russia restricts palladium and nickel exports in a sanctions tit-for-tat, squeezing autocatalyst and battery supply chains and spiking PGM prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +0.37–+6.06% · other way -8.71% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.19–-0.57% · other way +1.49% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.78–-0.13% · other way +2.08% (n=11) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -2.18–+1.35% · other way +1.92% (n=10) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.05–-0.22% · other way +1.68% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -4.33–+1.5% · other way +7.4% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.39–+2.09% · other way -5.54% (n=8) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–-0.33% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.69–+3.33% · other way +18.41% (n=11) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.48–+1.22% · other way +4.65% (n=8) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.91–+0.79% · other way +1.44% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.45–+0.23% · other way +8.05% (n=11) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.69–+1.48% · other way +11.75% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d +2.8% | 67% | 35 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 70% | 36 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 34 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 34 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.6% | 66% | 34 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.8% | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.7% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 17 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 32 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -4.2% | 62% | 24 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 32 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.7% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |