What if a new outbreak locks down Shanghai's ports?
A Shanghai-Ningbo COVID-style lockdown is a China demand-destruction shock first: WTI -1.3% on mobility collapse and copper softer, with safe-haven gold bid on stimulus expectations - the rare risk-off here that sells oil rather than buying it. Rhymes directly with the H1-2022 Shanghai lockdown that crushed crude demand and rebuilt the container backlog. China is the demand sink; trade partners feel it via re-spiked freight. The forward angle is post-zero-COVID Beijing is loath to re-lock, so probability is low but the supply-chain replay is the right mechanism.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A new outbreak triggers a Shanghai-Ningbo port lockdown, rebuilding the 2022 container backlog and freight spike. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.3% hist -6.41–+1.12% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.3–+0.26% · other way -3.66% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.13–+0.94% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.06–+0.53% · other way -1.43% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.18% · other way -2.39% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.5–+0.22% · other way -2.06% (n=12) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.43–+0.39% · other way +6.61% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.27–+0.6% · other way -1.5% (n=12) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–-0.08% · other way +3.98% (n=12) |
| 10 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.97–+1.0% · other way +3.82% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.41–+3.83% · other way +3.54% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.07% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.49–+2.91% · other way +17.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on VIX: the -8% realized averages in calming windows like bird-flu and ASML, masking a Shanghai port lockdown's genuine vol-spike — the analogue set is too heterogeneous to trust.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.7% | 66% | 29 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -3.6% | 66% | 29 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -6.3% | 67% | 24 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 37 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -12.5% | 60% | 17 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -7bp | 57% | 37 | 0.14 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.6% | 56% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -5.2% | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 54% | 29 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.7% | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.9% | 53% | 28 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 28 | 0.04 | · |
Why this probability
China abandoned zero-COVID; full Shanghai-Ningbo port lockdown now politically improbable even over 18mo. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.