What if Simultaneous refinery and LNG outages spike US gas and cracks?
Overlapping Gulf-coast refinery and LNG-terminal outages from a single storm spike product cracks while temporarily stranding feedgas, creating a rare split where cracks rise as Henry Hub dips.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Overlapping Gulf-coast refinery and LNG-terminal outages from a single storm spike product cracks while temporarily stranding feedgas, creating a rare split where cracks rise as Henry Hub dips. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Diesel ▲ · European energy ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.54–+2.89% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.02–+3.86% · other way +25.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.02–+0.35% · other way +8.54% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.36% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.97–+0.87% · other way +5.33% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.53–+0.83% · other way +7.64% (n=11) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.32–+0.56% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.6% | 73% | 34 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.9% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -4.5% | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 38% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +2.9% ↺ fades | 49% | 34 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 44% | 34 | 0.00 | · |