What if US-China relations freeze into a permanent cold-war footing?
US–China relations settle into a durable cold-war footing with permanent tech, trade and investment walls, structurally fragmenting the global economy into two systems.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US–China relations settle into a durable cold-war footing with permanent tech, trade and investment walls, structurally fragmenting the global economy into two systems. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.8% hist +1.45–+7.16% · other way -2.93% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.5% hist -2.58–-1.3% · other way +0.03% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -2.12–-1.01% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.95–-0.62% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.96–-1.06% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.74–+0.49% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.83–-0.21% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.95–-0.21% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.49–-0.66% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.51–-0.22% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -3.22–+0.25% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.43–+0.05% · other way +1.24% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.81–+0.29% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.17–+2.41% · other way +10.05% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.7% | 72% | 22 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 70% | 29 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.1% | 67% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.1% | 63% | 27 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 29 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 27 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.3% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -8.0% | 62% | 15 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 31 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |