What if Solar-geoengineering deployment debate roils markets?
A unilateral stratospheric-aerosol field trial sparks geopolitical conflict over solar geoengineering governance, injecting uncertainty into climate and agricultural outlooks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A unilateral stratospheric-aerosol field trial sparks geopolitical conflict over solar geoengineering governance, injecting uncertainty into climate and agricultural outlooks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Scientific breakthrough ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.2% hist +1.06–+4.4% |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.32–-0.56% |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.94–-0.32% |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.59–-0.18% |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.84–-0.3% |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.76–+0.26% |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.61–+11.47% |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–-0.13% |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.52–-0.15% |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.78–+0.66% |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.86–+0.95% |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.01–+0.36% |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.97–+1.0% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.7% | 70% | 39 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.1% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.3% | 72% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 66% | 37 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 37 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +6bp | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | · |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 35 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |