What if Soybeans rally as China resumes US buying?
A trade thaw brings large Chinese soybean and ag purchases back to US farmers, lifting CORN/soy complex and easing farm-belt stress as a goodwill down-payment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A trade thaw brings large Chinese soybean and ag purchases back to US farmers, lifting CORN/soy complex and easing farm-belt stress as a goodwill down-payment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.5% hist -0.21–+1.11% · other way +0.41% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.13–+1.42% · other way +1.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.26–+0.6% · other way +0.76% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.13–+0.73% · other way -0.78% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.51–+2.33% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.3–+0.56% · other way -2.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.32–+1.43% · other way +7.69% (n=5) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.6–+0.78% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.05–+1.17% · other way +3.11% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.17–+1.47% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.1–+0.87% · other way +2.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.5–+0.62% · other way -1.48% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.86–+8.53% · other way +9.78% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.0% | 71% | 39 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -3.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |