What if Strait of Hormuz scare halts Qatari LNG, JKM doubles?
A military scare in the Strait of Hormuz threatens Qatar's LNG export route; even a brief disruption removes a fifth of seaborne LNG and JKM and TTF roughly double on supply panic.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A military scare in the Strait of Hormuz threatens Qatar's LNG export route; even a brief disruption removes a fifth of seaborne LNG and JKM and TTF roughly double on supply panic. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.0% hist +1.42–+6.44% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.4% hist -2.15–-0.61% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.5–-0.81% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.8–+1.54% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.61–-0.5% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -1.64–+1.49% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.3–+1.75% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -4.15–+6.31% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.28–-0.39% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.16–+0.54% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.05–+2.02% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.13–+0.64% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.03–+0.34% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.0% | 73% | 31 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 72% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +2.2% | 69% | 15 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.3% | 69% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -4.6% | 66% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.0% | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +2.5% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 64% | 33 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.7% | 63% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -4.1% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 16 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |