What if Strike on Bushehr reactor sparks contamination fear?
An attack near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant raises radiological-contamination fears across the Gulf, amplifying the war premium in oil and a flight from regional risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An attack near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant raises radiological-contamination fears across the Gulf, amplifying the war premium in oil and a flight from regional risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.6% hist +1.54–+6.93% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.3% hist -2.14–-1.13% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +1.29–+2.21% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.34–+1.93% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.0–-1.01% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.17–-0.56% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.56–+1.45% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.56–+4.34% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.27–-0.4% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.07–+2.72% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.21–-0.34% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.07–+0.51% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.84–+1.0% · other way +5.33% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.9% · 5d +1.8% | 66% | 17 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +5bp | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +0.5% | 61% | 17 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |