What if a mega-ship blocks the Suez Canal again?
A three-week Suez wedge strands ~12-15% of global trade, spiking Asia-Europe box rates and a real Brent premium as tankers detour Cape of Good Hope, with VIX bid on the tail. Rhymes precisely with the March-2021 Ever Given grounding (six days, ~$9bn/day held up) and the 2024 Houthi reroutes that doubled Shanghai-Rotterdam rates. Europe is the most exposed importer; the forward angle is carriers now have Cape-routing muscle memory from 2024, so the freight spike normalizes faster than a first-time shock.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A grounded mega-boxship wedges Suez for three weeks, stranding 15% of global trade and spiking Asia-Europe rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.