What if accelerated friend-shoring disrupts global manufacturing supply chains?
Accelerated 'friend-shoring' and de-risking out of China disrupts global manufacturing supply chains, raising costs in the near term while hitting Chinese export-sector employment and FDI.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Accelerated 'friend-shoring' and de-risking out of China disrupts global manufacturing supply chains, raising costs in the near term while hitting Chinese export-sector employment and FDI. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.05–-0.48% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.31–-0.3% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.41–+0.21% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.95–+0.07% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.8–+0.99% · other way +7.57% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.52–+-0.0% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.66–-0.36% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.85–-0.13% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.86–+0.14% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.02–-0.08% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.75–+0.12% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.4–+0.09% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.86–-0.18% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.07–+0.46% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.9% | 70% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 37 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.2% | 69% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 68% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -6.2% | 66% | 29 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 37 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +3.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.23 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.0% | 61% | 36 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -3.1% | 62% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.0% | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |