What if synthetic-diamond chips upend the silicon industry?
Diamond-semiconductor efficiency is a 3-10yr threat, not a tradable shock: at announcement it nudges AI-capex sentiment up (more compute per watt extends the buildout) and pressures silicon foundry terminal value only at the margin — TSMC barely flinches. It rhymes with the recurring GaN/SiC 'silicon-killer' headlines that lifted power-semi names without denting TSMC. The roots are sensible; just respect that the timeline makes this a thematic tilt (long custom-silicon/power names) rather than an event trade.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A scalable diamond-semiconductor process promises radical efficiency gains, threatening silicon foundries and power-hungry data-center economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.