What if synthetic-diamond chips upend the silicon industry?
Diamond-semiconductor efficiency is a 3-10yr threat, not a tradable shock: at announcement it nudges AI-capex sentiment up (more compute per watt extends the buildout) and pressures silicon foundry terminal value only at the margin — TSMC barely flinches. It rhymes with the recurring GaN/SiC 'silicon-killer' headlines that lifted power-semi names without denting TSMC. The roots are sensible; just respect that the timeline makes this a thematic tilt (long custom-silicon/power names) rather than an event trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A scalable diamond-semiconductor process promises radical efficiency gains, threatening silicon foundries and power-hungry data-center economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.36–+0.36% |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.31–+1.28% |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.37–+1.21% |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.07% |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.14–+0.49% |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade longs on MU and AVGO: the negative history is DeepSeek and Trump-chip-selloff windows where AI-capex sentiment swamped everything, a driver orthogonal to a diamond-semiconductor efficiency shock.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +-0.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +1bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -3.5% | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 39% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Diamond semiconductors lab-stage; scalable foundry threat distant; speculative structural shift. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.