What if a Taiwan contingency cuts off TSMC advanced-node supply and freezes global electronics production?
A Taiwan contingency cuts off TSMC advanced-node supply, freezing global electronics, auto and AI hardware production for which there is no near-term substitute.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Taiwan contingency cuts off TSMC advanced-node supply, freezing global electronics, auto and AI hardware production for which there is no near-term substitute. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +11.2% hist +1.15–+11.94% · other way -5.62% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.9% hist -2.66–-1.39% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.2% hist -3.0–-1.19% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -4.42–-0.32% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.41–-1.25% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -1.91–-0.84% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.24–+0.17% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -5.36–+0.56% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.45–-0.59% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -4.58–+0.43% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.1–+2.39% · other way +18.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.68–-0.24% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.03–+0.16% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 14 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -4.24–+0.38% · other way -8.24% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +3.6% | 70% | 33 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -2.4% | 69% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -5.8% | 69% | 24 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 31 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.7% | 64% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.7% | 63% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -6.9% | 63% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.2% | 61% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 30 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |