What if Taiwan declares independence and upends the global order?
The cleanest chain is fab single-point-of-failure: a Taiwan break gaps VIX higher and crushes the semi/AI complex (TSMC, NVDA, ASML) as the Nasdaq's high-beta sleeve gets sold first, forcing vol-target deleveraging. Closest rhyme is the Aug-1995/Mar-1996 Strait crisis and the 2020 COVID semi scramble; both spiked Taiwan/tech risk premia hard. Transmission: Taiwan supplies >90% of leading-edge logic to US/China/Korea fabless and OEMs, so the shock is global, not regional. Forward angle: CHIPS-era US/Japan fab ramp cushions the multi-year story but not the days-one gap.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Taiwan declares independence, forcing an abrupt global power realignment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +17.7% hist +4.95–+13.61% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -8.3% hist -4.45–-2.22% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.9% hist -3.79–-1.76% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.7% hist -5.4–-0.84% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.4% hist -3.46–-1.15% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.8% hist -3.57–-2.02% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.0% hist -4.86–-0.33% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.33–-1.01% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.44–-1.08% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -5.58–+0.11% · other way -2.25% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.89–-1.07% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.8% hist -3.43–-0.88% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -4.4–+0.23% · other way -3.71% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.96–+1.24% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's MSTR short: the +13% analogues are all 2025 tariff windows where BTC's structural bull, not a Taiwan war, drove the proxy — swamped channel that a real shooting-war breaks.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 68% | 30 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -6.2% | 71% | 24 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 28 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 67% | 29 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.6% | 63% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -7.6% | 65% | 16 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.8% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 29 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 31 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Taiwan formal independence is near-suicidal red line; Lai avoids it; no true precedent. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.