What if a mine campaign hits tankers at a major loading zone?
Limpet-mine attacks in a major loading zone choke exports and price a hard supply tail — Brent gaps higher and the VIX/Nasdaq/risk-parity deleveraging leg dominates given the explicit tail-risk framing. Direct analogue: the 1980s Tanker War and the May-June 2019 Gulf-of-Oman limpet-mine attacks, which spiked war-risk premia and crude. Forward angle: spare OPEC capacity is thin and SPRs are depleted post-2022, so the buffer that capped the 2019 move is smaller now — fatter right tail on oil.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Limpet-mine attacks on tankers in a major loading zone choke exports and spike risk premia. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.