What if universal US tariffs pass through to consumer prices and force the Fed to hold rates higher?
Universal US tariffs of 10–20% plus 60% on China pass through to consumer prices, lifting US core inflation ~1pp and forcing the Fed to hold, an outcome flagged in IMF and Fed tariff-passthrough analysis.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Universal US tariffs of 10–20% plus 60% on China pass through to consumer prices, lifting US core inflation ~1pp and forcing the Fed to hold, an outcome flagged in IMF and Fed tariff-passthrough analysis. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +1.17–+4.46% · other way -5.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.6% hist -2.69–-1.57% · other way +0.01% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.28–-1.16% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.0% hist -2.09–-0.74% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -5.06–+0.38% · other way +5.65% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.91–-0.46% · other way +5.21% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -3.16–+0.03% · other way +3.08% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.93–+2.42% · other way +9.81% (n=7) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.12–+0.06% · other way +3.87% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.6–+0.61% · other way -4.28% (n=8) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.15–-0.44% · other way +1.77% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.13–-0.17% · other way +3.08% (n=11) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.11–+0.41% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.3% · 5d +0.8% | 73% | 13 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 70% | 31 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 27 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.3% | 68% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.3% · 5d +3.6% | 67% | 13 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -7.3% | 67% | 22 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -5.1% | 67% | 31 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -6.3% | 64% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.9% | 64% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 32 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |