What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?
PLA forces occupy the lightly garrisoned Pratas reef as a fait-accompli test of US resolve; markets price a partial Taiwan contingency — TWD, KOSPI, SMH down, gold and defense up.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. PLA forces occupy the lightly garrisoned Pratas reef as a fait-accompli test of US resolve; markets price a partial Taiwan contingency — TWD, KOSPI, SMH down, gold and defense up. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.2% hist +0.76–+10.49% · other way -1.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.9% hist -1.99–-1.12% · other way -0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.62–-0.65% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.49–-0.68% · other way +0.99% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.11–-0.38% · other way +1.39% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.06–-0.37% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.12–-0.24% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.0–+3.0% · other way +7.5% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -7.49–+1.69% · other way -17.09% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.45–+0.63% · other way -1.38% (n=12) |
| 11 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.45–+3.0% · other way -1.58% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.23–+1.39% · other way +0.83% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.44–+0.58% · other way -2.76% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.29–+1.18% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -3.9% | 71% | 23 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -5.5% | 74% | 16 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 66% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +2.2% | 63% | 37 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.7% · 5d +5.0% | 63% | 16 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 27 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 29 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -4.0% | 61% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 27 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.8% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |