What if US-China resume working-level military talks, cutting accident risk?
Resumption of theater-commander and maritime-safety talks lowers the odds of an accidental clash in Asian waters; the regional geopolitical premium eases, risk appetite improves, gold's bid fades.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Resumption of theater-commander and maritime-safety talks lowers the odds of an accidental clash in Asian waters; the regional geopolitical premium eases, risk appetite improves, gold's bid fades. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · Gold ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -6.2% hist -5.31–-1.15% · other way +3.96% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.56–+1.6% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.4–+1.5% · other way +0.68% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.26–+1.02% · other way -1.16% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -2.93–+7.31% · other way +7.69% (n=5) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.23–+2.59% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -5.42–+12.32% · other way +10.49% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–-0.05% · other way +1.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.78–+2.92% · other way -11.55% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.54–+7.06% · other way -6.05% (n=11) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.2–+3.55% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.07–+0.38% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.95–+0.94% · other way +1.82% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.3% | 68% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.5% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |