What if US strikes Mexican cartel labs on Mexican soil?
US forces conduct unilateral strikes on cartel fentanyl labs inside Mexico, straining bilateral relations, denting the peso and raising nearshoring uncertainty.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US forces conduct unilateral strikes on cartel fentanyl labs inside Mexico, straining bilateral relations, denting the peso and raising nearshoring uncertainty. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.