What if West Bank flares into a third intifada?
A sharp escalation in the West Bank opens another front for Israel and inflames the region, lifting the Israel war premium and oil-risk sensitivity.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sharp escalation in the West Bank opens another front for Israel and inflames the region, lifting the Israel war premium and oil-risk sensitivity. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.5% hist +0.97–+6.27% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.55–-0.59% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.08–-0.33% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.3–-0.3% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.08–-0.27% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.98–-0.47% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.72–+1.14% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.15–+2.63% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 9 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.75–+3.73% · other way -3.83% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.68–+1.71% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 12 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.46–+2.37% · other way -1.69% (n=12) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.7–+1.09% · other way +5.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.36–+0.71% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.9% · 5d +5.4% | 77% | 15 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -4.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.5% | 72% | 33 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 39 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.0% | 66% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.4% | 63% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +0.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +2.9% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.7% | 61% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.7% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.4% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |