What if Japan's yen suffers an EM-style confidence crisis and non-linear collapse?
A confluence of fiscal slippage, a stalled BoJ and a soaring import bill triggers a non-linear loss of confidence in the yen, an EM-style currency crisis in a developed economy that the IMF FSAP treats as an extreme tail.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A confluence of fiscal slippage, a stalled BoJ and a soaring import bill triggers a non-linear loss of confidence in the yen, an EM-style currency crisis in a developed economy that the IMF FSAP treats as an extreme tail. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.