Crypto

Bitcoin

BTC61,197

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Bitcoin, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 35% · 2781 up vs 6713 down scenarios

Bitcoin leans lower near-term — a lean. Of the 9,494 mapped scenarios that move Bitcoin, 2,781 push it up and 6,713 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Bitcoin lower is Cross-exchange liquidation cascade (29% likely, ~4.4% on Bitcoin). This week our model already has Bitcoin biased flat. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top (16% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves Bitcoin — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes Bitcoin up

Bitcoin doubles into blowoff top	16%	+6.5%	0–6 months
Ether recovers toward old high	41%	+5.3%	6–18 months
Spot-ETF and OCC custody mainstreaming entrenches the BTC bid	46%	+3.6%	1–3 years
Spot-ETF option markets deepen institutional Bitcoin liquidity	55%	+2.8%	1–3 years

+ 2,777 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes Bitcoin down

Cross-exchange liquidation cascade	29%	−4.4%	0–6 months
Layer-2 token cascade crash	36%	−3.4%	0–6 months
Mega token-unlock cliff dump	38%	−3.0%	0–6 months
Crypto-treasury firm NAV collapse	33%	−3.5%	0–6 months

+ 6,709 more down-scenarios in the library